What U.S. trade policies could mean for Ohio farmers

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio’s agricultural producers could soon be feeling the sting of escalating global trade tensions, as U.S. tariff policies evolve and foreign retaliation ramps up.

Ian Sheldon, a professor in The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES) and holder of The Andersons Endowed Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade, and Policy in the CFAES Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, is closely monitoring the unfolding situation.

He’ll present his insights on April 18 during the Ohio Food Policy Network’s virtual convening in a talk titled, “Current U.S. Trade Policy: What Impact?” Sheldon, an internationally recognized expert in agricultural economics, will offer insight into how the rapidly evolving tariff environment could affect farmers’ bottom lines.

At the heart of the conversation: the impact of newly proposed and implemented tariffs by the U.S., particularly those aimed at China, and the retaliatory tariffs that have followed.

“Given China’s retaliation with tariffs as high as 125% on U.S. agricultural exports, and the U.S. responding with even higher tariffs on Chinese goods, the risks to American farmers are growing by the day,” said Sheldon.

According to Sheldon, these policies could significantly reduce U.S. agricultural exports to China—our third-largest trading partner—and potentially depress prices for key Ohio exports like soybeans and corn.

“Soybeans and corn are the number one and number two agricultural exports from Ohio,” Sheldon said. “With China imposing new tariffs—up to 125%—on U.S. exports, our farmers are at risk of losing even more market share to competitors like Brazil.”

In recent months, the U.S. has imposed a series of steep tariffs, including 25% on all steel and aluminum imports, 145% across the board on Chinese goods, and additional tariffs on autos and auto parts. China and other major trade partners, including Canada and the European Union, have responded in kind.

“The current level of retaliatory tariffs from China will likely put significant downward pressure on prices and margins for Ohio’s farmers,” Sheldon said. “The impact of a prolonged or worsening trade war could be severe.”

Forecasted export losses for 2025 illustrate the scale of the potential economic hit.

In one scenario where the U.S. and China levy high tariffs on each other, along with US and rest-of-the-world retaliatory tariffs, soybean exports could drop by $15.8 billion and corn by $4.4 billion in 2025. Ohio alone could see losses of over $1 billion in soybean exports and $170 million in corn exports, according to a 2024 study.

Beyond reduced export opportunities, producers could face increased costs for farm inputs. Steel and aluminum tariffs may raise prices on farm machinery. Rising port taxes on Chinese shipping and potential tariffs on potash—critical for fertilizer and mostly imported from Canada—could squeeze farmers’ already tight margins.

“Farm input prices are likely to rise, especially for equipment and fuel,” said Sheldon. “And if tariffs extend to Mexican produce, we may also see higher fruit and vegetable prices in the U.S.”

Even though the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) currently provides tariff exemptions based on rules of origin, Sheldon warns that continued strain could undermine North American trade relations.

“It’s critical we maintain access to our USMCA partners, especially since Mexico and Canada are our top agricultural export markets,” Sheldon said. “Any new U.S. tariffs could seriously disrupt the integrated nature of North American agriculture.”

Another concern is the potential need for renewed federal compensation to farmers—similar to the $23.2 billion paid during the 2018–2019 trade war through the Market Facilitation Program.

With U.S. agricultural exports forecast to decline by $3.9 billion in 2025, and imports expected to rise by $13.3 billion, the U.S. trade deficit in agriculture could widen further.

Sheldon emphasized that broader macroeconomic implications could emerge.

“We may see a one-time increase in inflation and shifts in the dollar’s value, both of which could affect U.S. exports and interest rate policy,” he said.

Looking ahead, Sheldon urges caution in moving away from long-standing international trade norms.

“The WTO system, though imperfect, has provided a level of certainty and a functioning dispute resolution mechanism,” he said. “Unilateral U.S. actions threaten to further destabilize global trade.”

As trade policy remains in flux, Sheldon’s upcoming presentation will offer timely insights into the evolving landscape and what it means for agriculture at home and abroad.

CFAES remains committed to educating Ohio’s farmers and agribusinesses through expert analysis, policy engagement, and outreach. The upcoming webinar is part of that mission, providing producers and policymakers with the tools to navigate the global trade environment.

Register for the April 18 webinar at bit.ly/OFPN_Tariffs. For ongoing updates and analysis, visit the Water Cooler Economics blog at u.osu.edu/aede/